Bitcoin’s Futures Market Cools Down as Retail Traders Take Center Stage

Bitcoin’s futures market is entering a cooling phase, with declining participation from whales and growing influence from retail traders. This shift has sparked concerns of bearish sentiment and potential range-bound movement, despite broader market optimism.

Weakening Futures Market

According to CryptoQuant analyst EgyHashX, the futures market is transitioning from being whale-driven to more retail-led, with implications for Bitcoin’s near-term trajectory. “Bitcoin’s futures market is cooling, with reduced whale activity and stronger retail influence reinforcing bearish sentiment. Unless whales demand returns, the price is likely to remain range-bound or face downside pressure,” EgyHashX stated.

Decline in Large Trades

The Futures Average Order Size chart, which reflects trading volume per transaction, shows a clear decline in large trades. During Bitcoin’s rise from $100K to $120K between June and September 2025, retail participation surged, overpowering the influence of institutional players.

Healthy Trading Activity

Supporting this observation, the Futures Volume Bubble Map highlights how the current price rally differs from earlier speculative spikes. The recent months have shown mainly green “cooling” bubbles, suggesting healthy trading activity without the excess leverage that often precedes sharp corrections.

Sellers Take Control

Adding to the bearish tone is the Bitcoin Futures Taker CVD (Cumulative Volume Delta), which reflects dominant selling activity. Between January and April 2025, red bars on the chart signaled that taker sell orders had taken over. There was a short-lived buyer revival in May-July, but since late July, sellers have again taken the upper hand despite Bitcoin price surging above $110K.

Market Data and Technical Indicators

bitpulse reported earlier that whales have dumped 100,000 BTC in the past 30 days, further supporting the latest shift from a whale to a retail-led market. For now, market data shows that Bitcoin is trading at $112,952 at press time, slightly recovering after falling out of the $110,000 support zone. Meanwhile, technical indicators are turning bullish. The MACD histogram has flipped green, and the MACD line is crossing above the signal line, indicating early bullish momentum. The RSI stands at 51.55, recovering from oversold territory, suggesting neutral-to-positive momentum.

Resistance and Support Levels

Nevertheless, the major resistance at $114,800 has to be overcome to allow BTC to test the $118,500 or even revisit the current high of $124,475. On the other hand, $110,000 and $107,500 are important support levels. A drop below might open Bitcoin to additional correction, possibly to as low as $103,000.

Conclusion

Although the current picture is optimistic, the declining futures market and whale involvement indicate that the continuation of a bullish trend will depend on new institutional demand. Without it, BTC may continue to trade sideways in the coming days.